​世纪抄底半导体

[{"attributes":{"color":"var(--weui-FG-2)"},"insert":"失效分析 赵工"},{"insert":" "},{"attributes":{"color":"#576b95"},"insert":"半导体工程师"},{"insert":" "},{"attributes":{"color":"var(--weui-FG-2)"},"insert":"2023-02-07 10:06"},{"insert":" "},{"attributes":{"color":"var(--weui-FG-2)"},"insert":"发表于北京"},{"insert":"\n\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"2022年，万物落，泥沙俱下；2023年，万物上，反转再反转。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"其中一个典型，就是"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0080ff","bold":true},"insert":"半导体"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"insert":{"image":"https://files.eteforum.com/202302/5f34218935d53249.png"}},{"attributes":{"align":"center"},"insert":"\n"},{"insert":"探针台13488683602"},{"attributes":{"align":"center"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"这个行业在过去一年，有两个泾渭分明的时期。上半年，还在各种缺芯、价格飞涨，可是到了下半年，一下子变成了库存高企、需求不足、业绩暴雷、股价暴跌。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"不过，风险是涨上去，机会是跌出来的。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"经过这半年多的调整，半导体的周期反转，就在不远处，而抄底的机会，就在眼前。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n\n\n"},{"attributes":{"bold":true},"insert":"01"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n\n\n\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#021eaa","bold":true},"insert":"股价已见底"},{"attributes":{"align":"center"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"说抄底，首先得确定是底不是底，否则就会发生抄在半山腰的惨状。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"所以问题来了，半导体板块现在到底没到底？"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"众所周知，半导体属于周期行业，遵循的还是传统的需求上--价格上--产能上--价格下--产能下的循环规律，从波谷到波峰的上行周期是1-3年，而从波峰至波谷的下行周期1-2年，整个周期下来，耗时4-5年不等。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"穿插这个周期的关键指标是"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0080ff","bold":true},"insert":"库存"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"insert":{"image":"https://files.eteforum.com/202302/1a9511fb3c46175e.png"}},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"而股价通常提前半年反映实体经营情况，也就是说，"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0080ff","bold":true},"insert":"半导体行业的库存见底时，股价通常提前半年就先行见底。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"疫情爆发后，由于居家人数增多，消费电子需求旺盛，加上供应链中断，半导体进入量价齐升的阶段，来了一个超级上涨周期，很多下游终端厂商都需要抢，才能获得芯片。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"但是，周期有上就有落。随着疫情的缓解，以及供应链的恢复，消费电子的需求开始下滑，半导体的周期也出现新的变化。"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0080ff","bold":true},"insert":"从行业的库存数据变化上看，2022年中期半导体的库存开始积压，反映出行业的供给开始大于需求，正好对应上图中的红线位置。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"根据Wind的三季报统计数据也可以佐证，2022年三季度末，半导体板块158家公司中，有44家公司三季度存货环比增长超过20%，7家增速超过50%。以韦尔股份为例，2021年末，公司存货为87.81亿元，已经是五年最高，相比上一年增加35亿元。但2022年一至三季度，其存货分别还进一步增加到104.7亿元、126.4亿元、141.1亿元，环比增长20.7%、11.6%，公司因此计提的存货跌价准备近5亿元。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"库存多了就得去库存，于是去年下半年，一直到现在，半导体行业都在做这个工作。半导体公司的股价普遍在2021年下半年见顶，随后进入持续下跌状态，从侧面也验证了本轮半导体周期在22年中期见顶。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"韦尔股份股价走势（举例）："},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"insert":{"image":"https://files.eteforum.com/202302/99c908afc8dde908.png"}},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"如果只看常规的周期持续时间，这一波始于2022年中期的去库存，需要一年左右的时间才能完成，对应的完成时间是2023年中期，现在才刚走过半程，换句话说，半导体厂家仍然处于去库存的阶段。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"在上月韦尔股份的电话会议中，透露了一个非常重要的信息，"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0080ff","bold":true},"insert":"公司预计去库存的工作将在2023年中期完成"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"，侧面也印证我们的判断。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"所以，结论就很明显了。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"如果从半导体的库存周期上看，现在还不是底，要等到今年中期才会看到，但从股价提前半年反映的规律看，"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0080ff","bold":true},"insert":"半导体公司大概率已经处在底部区间。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n\n\n"},{"attributes":{"bold":true},"insert":"02"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n\n\n\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#021eaa","bold":true},"insert":"业绩正向上"},{"attributes":{"align":"center"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"股价见底后能否回升，很大程度取决于实体经营何时进入周期向上。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"在这点上，半导体行业的需求预期是向好的。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"疫情放开后，中国经济复苏的预期已经被市场认可，目前感染高峰期也已经度过，随着全国上下进入拼经济模式，近期公布的各省市经济增长目标，普遍都在5%以上，一些省份甚至超过6%，今年的经济增长大概率会比去年强劲得多。一些全球性的经济机构、国际投行都纷纷调到中国今年的经济增长预测。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"半导体和消费电子的需求密切相关，而最根本的支撑力量还是宏观经济，去年消费电子需求下滑有目共睹，家电、电脑、手机等重要终端出货量都录得负增长，其中2022年第四季全球智能手机出货量较去年同期萎缩 17%，是十年来最糟糕的季度表现，全年出货量则是减11%，不到12亿部。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"不过，这也形成去年的低基数，今年随着宏观经济、地产行业以及居民消费的好转，重新获得增长不是难事。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0080ff","bold":true},"insert":"所以，从需求的角度看，在清库存工作完成之后，半导体重新进入上行阶段，是大概率事件。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"另一面，从已经公布的半导体公司2022年业绩预告上看，确实比较惨。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"像韦尔股份，预计2022年年度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为8亿元—12亿元，同比减少73.19%—82.13%；扣除非经常性损益后，公司预计2022年年度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为9000万元至13500万元，同比减少96.63%到97.75%。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"又如卓胜微，预计2022年度实现营业收入36.80亿元，较去年同期下降20.59%，预计归属于上市公司股东的净利润91300万元～112600万元，较去年同期下降47.26%-57.23%。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"两家公司股价高位至今的跌幅，依然有63%、59%，动态估值回撤到36倍、46倍，保守计算，比历史的估值中枢（50-80倍、70-90倍）还低30-50%。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"但从另外的角度看，业绩、股价、估值的大幅下跌，已经较为充分地反应半导体行业的周期下行，只要需求预期重回增长，半导体企业的业绩预期也会跟着好转，那股价就会进入修复甚至新的上升通道。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0080ff","bold":true},"insert":"现在，正处于这样的时间点。需求一步步向上，库存则一步步降低，今年上半年在清一清，下半年业绩恢复增长是已经可以预见。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n\n"},{"insert":{"image":"https://files.eteforum.com/202302/84d03a7d31f93521.png"}},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n\n"},{"attributes":{"bold":true},"insert":"03"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n\n\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#021eaa","bold":true},"insert":"抄底正合时"},{"attributes":{"align":"center"},"insert":"\n\n"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"从过去半年半导体的股价演变上看，中间几经波折，但也有利好的信息。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"先是10月，股市大跌，半导体股价也随之下探到低位，市场开始有声音认为，虽然时间上距离库存周期还远，但股价跌幅太大，有可能提前反映库存见底。随后，疫情解封，经济复苏预期下，股市气氛好转，出现强势反弹，半导体也随大盘上升。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"到11月中旬，传出巴菲特抄底台积电，半导体板块受到催化，进一步反弹。但再后面，由于缺乏相应的催化剂，股价进入盘整阶段。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"进入2023年1月，半导体公司开始公布2022年业绩预告，不出意外，基本是盈利大幅下滑，但意外的是，这些半导体公司股价不但没有下跌，反而大涨，反映的正是业绩利空出尽，估值修复的逻辑，也进一步验证了半导体股价见底的逻辑。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":{"image":"https://files.eteforum.com/202302/6dab6b1926763543.png"}},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"如果单看股价走势，10月份那一次无疑是最低点。有能力抄在最低点，当然好，但抄不到，也无可厚非，因为当时的市场环境很恶劣，下行压力非常大，不确定性也很高，市场的认知还存在分歧。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"现在就不一样了，库存见底和股价见底的时间差已经形成，正有越来越多的数据验证这个时间差，市场对此不会视而不见。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0080ff","bold":true},"insert":"更重要的是，半导体目前的股价、估值，仍然处在比较低的位置，估值修复的动力仍然充足，抄底的价值仍然很高，即使只修复到历史的估值中枢，也有30-50%的上升空间。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"往后拉长时间看，即使估值修复完成，上涨动力仍然不缺乏。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"中期上看，随着经济进入新的上升周期，半导体行业的景气度会继续上升；长期上看，国产替代有着更加广阔的增长空间。这几天，高层的集体学习，再一次提及要坚决解决科技卡脖子问题，半导体是这个主题里最重要的一个环节。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"所以，一句话说完半导体的短中长投资逻辑，那就是"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0080ff","bold":true},"insert":"短期看修复，中期看经济，长期看国产替代。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"这里面任何一个，背后所蕴含的投资价值都相当高。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n\n\n"},{"attributes":{"bold":true},"insert":"04"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n\n\n\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#021eaa","bold":true},"insert":"抄哪个细分领域？"},{"attributes":{"align":"center"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"按产业链上分，半导体可以大致分为原材料、设备、设计、制造和封测。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"其中"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0080ff","bold":true},"insert":"设计"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"的抄底价值最高。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"因为设计公司去年的业绩、股价跌幅最大，是去库存的主角，也是最先受到终端产品需求带动的细分领域。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"insert":{"image":"https://files.eteforum.com/202302/508026700766e4ce.png"}},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"换句话说，设计公司的修复空间大，容易受益经济回暖，业绩的增长确定性更高，也更大。同时，国内的上市设计公司涉及高端芯片较少，大国博弈风险相对弱一些，加上这些设计公司的芯片产品技术成熟，需求稳定，基本面相对要好一些，行情修复也相对容易，不失为好的抄底对象。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"去年剧烈的周期下行，股价暴跌，相信不少半导体投资者都损失不少。好在，周期股，有落就必有上。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"#0b2b5b"},"insert":"现在，等足一年，是时候拿回自己失去的东西。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"insert":"来源：是说芯语；作者深鹏"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"attributes":{"color":"var(--weui-FG-0)"},"insert":"半导体工程师"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"},{"insert":"半导体经验分享，半导体成果交流，半导体信息发布。半导体行业动态，半导体从业者职业规划，芯片工程师成长历程。"},{"attributes":{"align":"justify"},"insert":"\n"}]